Industry concerns | polyester filament: rising trend in Febr

Introduction: after the trough period in 2020, the rising trend of polyester filament has continued since 2021, and the driving force comes from the cost side. At present, the raw materials still have action, and the rising trend of polyester filament may continue until early March.

Figure 1 price trend comparison of mainstream polyester filament models in 2018-2021

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Source: Longzhong information

In recent years, since the commissioning of the refining and chemical project, polyester filament has followed the PTA trend, showing a downward trend of shock, especially in 2020, the outbreak of the epidemic has frustrated the whole chemical fiber industry. As the main textile and clothing fabric, polyester filament has not been spared. After the trough in the first half of 2020, polyester filament is gradually on the road of rebound. Especially since the end of 2020, relying on the cost support, polyester filament has a good rise.

Figure 2 price trend comparison of mainstream polyester filament models and raw materials:

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In the near future, oil prices continued to rebound during the Spring Festival holiday, vaccines made good progress, the global trade environment improved during the new administration of the United States, and the cold wave weather in the United States also led to the shutdown of many ethylene glycol units, causing supply concerns, and the futures limit rose frequently after the ethylene glycol Festival. PTA Yisheng Hainan plant stopped unexpectedly during the holiday, the overall supply was lower than the market expectation, and the rise of oil price boosted the market atmosphere. In the short term, it supported the current market. After the holiday, the double raw materials showed a trend of sharp rise. Under the cost pressure, the quotation of polyester filament enterprises increased one after another, and the market was increased by 600-700 yuan / ton. Up to now, poy150d / 48F, fdy150d / 96F, dty150d / 48F and dty150d / 48F are 7450-7650 yuan / ton, 7550-7675 yuan / ton and 8950-9100 yuan / ton respectively.

Statistics before the festival show that downstream weaving enterprises return to work later than polyester production enterprises. However, due to the government's promotion of local new year this year, about 30% of migrant workers choose to stay in the local festival, and the price of polyester filament continues to rise. In addition, the epidemic situation during the Spring Festival is well controlled, and there is no need to isolate low-risk areas after the festival. Many factors ensure the orderly return to work after the festival, and make the production more stable The resumption time is ahead of schedule. As of February 24, the comprehensive start-up rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased to 44.50%. It is expected that the weaving start-up load will increase to 80-90% by the end of February, and the weaving industry will basically resume normal operation in early March.

However, due to the current polyester and raw materials rising well, the market risk is increased too fast, the downstream mentality is cautious, and the end users are hesitant to place orders. After the festival, the orders of weaving enterprises have not improved significantly.

At present, the cost side support can be extended to around the middle of March. Whether this round of price increase can be transmitted down to the terminal and digest the increase is the key to affect the market trend of polyester filament in March. Before the festival, grey cloth was sold at a loss, and the overall inventory pressure was not great. Recently, grey cloth followed the rising trend of polyester, and the quotation was gradually raised. It is said that some traders are also collecting a lot of cloth, and the grey cloth inventory also shows a downward trend after the festival.

Therefore, we expect that before the middle of March, the polyester filament will continue the trend of oscillation and warming, and the transaction still has a certain upward space. During this period, due to the fluctuation of raw materials, there is a certain adjustment range, and there is no downward risk. However, after the middle of March, the terminal demand gradually became clear, and the rising trend was too strong, which suppressed the terminal demand to a certain extent. Therefore, after the middle of March, the market negotiation was stiff and there was a risk of decline.

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